Egypt OutlookEgypt’s Muddling Through Transition: Mixed forces in action

Economic Outlook, Quarterly Report

Published: February 2014

  • 22 Pages
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“Egypt’s Economic Outlook” is a quarterly publication that summarizes Dcode EFC’s view of the most likely economic scenarios over the short and medium terms, along with the prospects of key macroeconomic indicators. The projected economic figures are driven in light of (i) Dcode EFC’s consistent and detailed macroeconomic framework, (ii) a thorough follow up and assessment of the most recent announced policies, news and economic trends, and (iii) an intelligent analysis of the latest published official statistics and indicators. The views and insights provided in this report are based on our experts’ technical knowledge and local insights, coupled with an objective assessment of the entire economic and political picture, and any developments at the time of the report’s publication. Our ultimate goal is to provide a reliable forward-looking view of key economic indicators and trends and to present our core findings in a clear, illustrative fashion to support our clients and partners in making the most informed decisions. In addition, the report highlights some of the key economic risks facing Egypt and businesses operating within the country over the short and medium terms.

In this Issue:

Egypt’s new political road map is progressing at a rather slower pace despite political instability, polarization and violence. A new constitution was approved with a turnout of almost 39% and the presidential elections are expected to be held by end March /early April followed by parliamentary elections towards the end of the summer. The Arab Gulf states exceptional and notable support since July 2013 has been a key stabilizing factor and enhancer of confidence level. So far, the Gulf States’ pledges amount to USD 16.9 bn of which USD 12 bn had already been received. Markets’/investors’   sentiment and reaction has been positive so far. Terrorist attacks, high inflation and ongoing tension with western countries stand key short-term challenges. Our central forecasts assume that the current political roadmap would end this summer and the security situation would remain volatile. We expect the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and its allies to continue to be marginalized from the political scene, especially with the ongoing violence and terrorist attacks. On the economic front, we assume that the government main priority in the short run would be to stimulate economic activities.

Table of Contents

I- Preface

II- Disclaimer

III- Executive Summary

IV- Landscape and Key Assumptions

V- Global Economic Outlook

VI- Economic Growth and Unemployment

VII- Breakdown of Economic Drivers and Unemployment

a) Private Consumption

b) Private Investment

c) Exports and Imports

d) Unemployment

VIII- Government Finances and Debt

IX- Prices and Interest Rates

X- Banking Indicators and Exchange Rates

XII- External Sector

XIII- Key Risks


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