Scenario Analysis Oct 2013Inflation, Tourism, and Gulf Inflows

Scenario Analysis Series

Published: October 2013

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The profound and rapid developments that is taking place in Egypt since 2011 and the uncertainty of the new political and economic landscape poses significant risks for businesses, organizations and individuals. These risks triggered the need for deep and accurate understanding of how the Egyptian economy with its many variables will perform in the future subject to different, but plausible, scenarios. Dcode EFC’s “Economic Scenarios Analysis” is our attempt to address this need given our understanding that our partners need to be prepared for the different economic scenarios that could take place in Egypt. This month’s issue tackles scenarios associated with the following “What if” questions:
  1.  What if Inflation rate increased temporarily by 200 basis points (2%) in FY 2013/2014?
  2. What if the tourism sector is negatively affected in the short run by the ongoing political violence and instability?
  3. What if more Gulf inflows materialize beyond the USD 12 billion aid package pledged back in July2013?


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